A momentum-driven, chip-focused strategy that uses RSIs, moving-averages, and a top-asset screen to pick one main bet on semiconductors (or related assets). It hedges with 3x levered semis bets and may shift to broad-market/energy bets if momentum deteriorates or RSI signals warn of extremes.

Plain-language overview: - You start with cash and try to invest in one main idea at a time (a single asset chosen by a momentum screen). - There are two safety nets or hedges built in: 1) If the semiconductor group (SOXX) has an extreme one-day drop of more than ~2%, the strategy briefly shifts toward a bearable hedged bet (SOXS) to profit from a possible downside move. 2) If the 5-day momentum in SOXX is very strong (more than ~5%), the system looks to rebalance into other signals that could mean a correction is coming, using a bearish mean-reversion logic. - There’s an NVDA-specific check: if NVDA looks extremely overbought by RSI (>90 on an 8-day window), the strategy leans toward a bearish tilt (SOXS) under certain paths; if NVDA isn’t in that extreme state but AMD shows extreme oversold conditions (RSI < 15 on an 3-day window), there’s a setup to favor the SOXL bullish bet in some paths. - In normal conditions, the model runs a “top screen” across a basket that includes SOXX (semiconductors), NVDA, AMD, XLE (energy), and ENPH (solar/energy tech). It ranks these by their 90-day moving-average return and selects the top asset to own fully (100%). - There’s a momentum sanity check: if the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) price of SOXX is above its 200-day EMA (a bullish signal), the top-asset screen is used directly. If not, the system instead looks at the top two assets from SPY (broad market), DBC (commodities), and XLE (energy) based on the same 90-day momentum rule, and allocates 100% between those two. - The “weighting” steps are described as cash-equal in parts of the logic, indicating a default cash buffer while signals are evaluated. There is no periodic automatic rebalancing outside the signal-driven moves (rebalance: none). - The overall intent is to ride semiconductor momentum when the sector looks strong, but to flip to hedged or diversified bets when momentum signals warn of a pullback or excessive enthusiasm. What you might actually see as a layman: - If chips are looking strong, you’ll likely be exposed to the top semiconductor/related stock or ETF (SOXX, NVDA, AMD, XLE, or ENPH) with a generous tilt toward the leader over the last ~3 months. - If chips look shaky or a stock looks extremely overbought, you’ll see hedges that aim to profit from downside (via SOXS) or reduce the tilt. - In rare situations, if a broad-market or commodities picture looks better on momentum than chips, the strategy may tilt into SPY/DBC/XLE rather than pure semiconductors. - It uses simple, widely watched indicators (RSI, moving averages) in a way that a newer investor can recognize, but the use of 3x leveraged ETFs adds significant risk and should be understood before implementing.

Edge: Out-of-sample annualized return ~128% vs S&P ~18%; Sharpe ~1.48 vs ~1.10; Calmar ~2.60. Focused on semiconductors with built-in hedges (3x levered bets) to target upside while managing risk—though drawdowns can be larger in downturns.