Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Algorithm - Using Bond environment to determine risk triggers
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, macro‑aware ETF strategy: it first labels markets as inflationary or deflationary, then as risk‑on or risk‑off, and rotates into tech/consumer when calm or into bonds, utilities, gold and selective hedges when stress rises, with volatility‑based sizing.
1) First, it decides inflation vs deflation by comparing trends in base metals (DBB) to long US Treasuries (TLT).
2) Then it judges “risk on/off” using a simple hot/cold meter (RSI: high=stretched, low=washed‑out) on big indexes and cyclicals vs defensives.
3) It builds ETF baskets to fit the scene (e.g., QQQ/SMH/XLY in calm; TLT/XLU/GLD and some shorts like DUG/SCO in stress), sizes by volatility, and rebalances daily.
Capital-protection edge: out-of-sample drawdown 3.26% vs SPY 5.07%, Calmar 2.14 and Sharpe 0.95 show stronger risk-adjusted performance. Macro-rotation and hedges dampen downturns, delivering steadier growth vs. the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 405.95% | 13.49% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 158,169.47% | 77.73% | 3.49% | 2.79% | 3.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$15,826,946.58Regulatory Fees
$107,562.63
Total Slippage
$729,516.04
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 5, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro regime rotation, tactical etf allocation, trend + mean reversion, volatility-weighted, hedged, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 78 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks