Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Algorithm - Using Bond environment to determine risk triggers
Today’s Change (Mar 8, 2026)
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About
Macro first (commodities vs Treasuries) to pick inflation or deflation. Then risk‑on/off from sector and momentum signals. It rotates into growth in inflationary risk‑on, shifts to commodities/defensives and hedges in stagflation, and favors Treasuries/defensives in deflationary stress.
1) Macro: inflation or deflation? It compares trends in commodity metals (DBB) vs long US bonds (TLT).
2) Risk: inside that regime, risk‑on or risk‑off? It checks who’s winning (cyclicals vs defensives like XLB vs XLU, VNQ vs DBC) and a hot/cold gauge (RSI 0–100; >70 hot, <30 cold).
3) It then buys baskets that fit the scene, adding VIX and inverse‑ETF hedges when too hot. Sizes by inverse‑vol; rebalanced daily.
Macro-regime rotation with risk-on/off hedges offers ~7% out-of-sample annualized return, Sharpe ~0.95, Calmar ~2.14, and max drawdown ~3.26% vs S&P’s ~5.07%. Lower drawdowns, steadier risk‑adjusted gains, with inflation/deflation protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 407.15% | 13.54% | -2.64% | -1.35% | 0.83 | |
| 156,713.54% | 77.83% | 1.75% | 2% | 3.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$15,681,353.85Regulatory Fees
$106,228.45
Total Slippage
$720,193.57
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 5, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro regime rotation, inflation vs deflation, sector rotation, risk-on/off, hedged, inverse/volatility etfs, commodities vs bonds, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 78 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks