Inflation/Deflation Based Risk Algorithm - Using Bond environment to determine risk triggers
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About
A daily trading strategy that first decides whether the market is acting inflationary or deflationary, then switches between aggressive, defensive, commodity, bond, and hedging positions based on how risky markets look.
This strategy first asks: does the market look more inflationary or deflationary? It answers that mainly by comparing commodity funds with long-term Treasury bond funds.
Then it asks: are investors currently taking risk, or avoiding it? Based on that answer, it shifts into different baskets of investments—such as tech, defensive sectors, commodities, bonds, gold, or funds that rise when markets fall.
It also uses a “too hot / too cold” check on recent price moves to avoid chasing rallies and to sometimes buy areas that have fallen sharply.
Dynamic macro-regime strategy shifts with inflation/deflation and risk-on/risk-off. Out-of-sample Calmar 1.41 and beta ~0.42 suggest lower market sensitivity and solid risk-adjusted downside protection vs. the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 482.86% | 14.01% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.86 | |
| 206,558.72% | 76.41% | 9.86% | 12.13% | 3.38 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$20,665,871.56Regulatory Fees
$124,624.38
Total Slippage
$1,117,059.50
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 5, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro, regime-switching, tactical allocation, inflation/deflation, sector rotation, commodities, bonds, inverse etfs, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 78 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIS
ProShares UltraShort NASDAQ Biotechnology
Stocks
BIZD
VanEck BDC Income ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
BZQ
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped
Stocks
CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
Stocks
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
DBA
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Stocks
DBB
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DUG
ProShares UltraShort Energy
Stocks