Inflation Spiral Hedge
Today’s Change (Oct 8, 2026)
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About
Defaults to QQQ. If a rising‑rates gauge (TBT) jumps ≥10% over ~60 days, it rotates into a 50% fixed inflation basket and 50% in the single most volatile pick from that list (plus QQQ). Rebalanced daily.
It watches TBT (a fund that goes up when long‑term US Treasury bonds fall). If TBT rose ≥10% in the last ~60 days, it assumes inflation/rising rates. Then: 50% goes to an inflation mix—DBC (broad commodities), GLD (gold), TBF (short long‑term Treasuries), XLE (oil/gas stocks), XLV (healthcare). The other 50% goes to whichever of those (plus QQQ, big tech/growth) had the biggest price swings over the last 14 days. Otherwise it holds QQQ. Rebalanced daily.
Regime-switching inflation hedge: 50% in a diversified inflation basket and 50% in the most volatile hedge when rates spike. Out-of-sample: ~17.8% annualized return, Sharpe ~0.95, max drawdown ~22.8%. A complementary approach to SPY during inflation shocks.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 1.01 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 906.5% | 14.51% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.88 | |
| 2,584.73% | 21.29% | -0.69% | 0.56% | 1.08 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$268,473.45Regulatory Fees
$466.57
Total Slippage
$3,713.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Aug 5, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Macro, inflation hedge, commodities, gold, energy, healthcare, short treasuries, tactical, regime switching, daily rebalance