HYG/TMF | Long Term Success
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About
A daily-rebalanced, cash-equal strategy that blends a bond/yield anchor (HYG and TMF) with a momentum overlay that can tilt into leveraged tech bets (TQQQ/TECL) or safer assets, all guided by multiple short- and medium-term momentum/volatility signals.
- Core idea: divide capital between two main themes that are treated like two competing menus. One menu centers on bonds (high-yield bonds via HYG) and long Treasuries (TMF). The other menu is a momentum-driven, leverage-enhanced equity approach (levered tech ETFs like TQQQ and TECL, using QQQ/SPY as benchmarks). The system rebalances every day to pick the most appropriate menu for the moment.
- How the decision is made (simplified): each day, the code checks a chain of rules that look at recent performance and momentum. If the bond side looks attractive (for example, bond performance over a recent window is decent and certain momentum/relative-strength checks pass), the strategy funds that bond-led sleeve (HYG + TMF) with a 100% allocation within that branch. If not, it considers the momentum/equity sleeve, which may tilt toward leveraged tech exposure (TQQQ, TECL) when certain RSI- and moving-average conditions indicate a trend is favorable, or shift into safer assets (SHV, short Treasuries) when volatility or risk signals are high.
- Signals used (in plain terms): recent returns of bond segments, short-term momentum indicators, a few trend-following checks (like moving averages), and volatility indicators. The model explicitly uses a mix of assets: HYG (high-yield bonds), TMF (long Treasuries, levered), TQQQ (3x NASDAQ tech), TECL (3x tech sector), QQQ/SPY (benchmark indices), VIXY (volatility proxy), SHV (short-term Treasuries), BND (broad bond market), BIL (very short Treasuries), TL T (long Treasuries proxy).
- What happens in practice: when signals favor risk-taking and trend strength, you get exposure to leveraged tech and equity proxies; when signals favor safety or bond strength, you shift toward Treasuries and cash-like liquidity. The design emphasizes a long horizon but uses daily signals to adjust posture, aiming to ride trends while trying to avoid big drawdowns through risk signals.
- Risks to note: leveraged ETFs (like TQQQ, TECL, TMF) magnify moves and can lead to larger losses in sudden market reversals; the rules are complex and may produce frequent turnover; transaction costs and tax considerations apply; past signals don’t guarantee future results.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher upside (≈25.5% annualized) versus the S&P 500 (≈19.6%), via a bond/yield anchor and a momentum-led levered-equity sleeve with daily rebalancing. It seeks trend-based growth while adapting to risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 | 1.85 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 590.61% | 13.59% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 2,602,394.59% | 95.49% | 2.53% | 13.2% | 1.64 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$260,249,459.07Regulatory Fees
$698,364.73
Total Slippage
$5,001,048.72
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 25, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Long-term trend-following, leveraged momentum, multi-asset allocation, fixed income tilt, risk-control
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks