A tactical, two-branch strategy that toggles between a 2x leveraged bet on yen weakness (via YCS) when the U.S. dollar shows upward momentum, and a safe, short-term U.S. dollar exposure (via BIL) when the USD signal is weaker or bond-bill momentum favors safety. It uses a 60-day USD momentum test (UUP) and a 60-day bonds-vs-bills momentum check (BND vs BIL) to decide which branch to run. It’s a momentum-driven, currency-focused approach with no fixed regular rebalancing, emphasizing a high-leverage yen bet in the right conditions and a conservative bills position in others.

- The strategy has two main “baskets”: a Short Basket (YCS) and a Weakening $ basket (BIL). - The charted logic first checks USD momentum, using UUP (the USD Index ETF) and a 60-day window: • If the current USD price is above its 60-day moving average (i.e., USD is showing upside momentum), the model targets the Short Basket and allocates to YCS (ProShares UltraShort Yen). YCS is a 2x levered bet that the Japanese yen will weaken against the U.S. dollar, so when USD momentum is strong, the strategy expects yen weakness and profits from YCS. • If the USD is not above its 60-day moving average, the model moves toward the Weakening $ bucket and allocates to BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF). This represents a shift toward safer, short-term U.S. dollar exposure when USD momentum is softer. - There is a secondary condition that references BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market) and BIL (short-term bills) over a 60-day window: • If the 60-day cumulative return of BND is less than the 60-day cumulative return of BIL, the system emphasizes the USD-weakening scenario (and thus the BIL allocation). If not, the alternate branch labels (e.g., “Rates going down (sentiment)”) come into play, with BIL again used in that branch as the instrument for the rate-sentiment context. - The intent of the two-signal setup is to use both a USD momentum signal (UUP-based) and a relative bonds-vs-bills momentum signal (BND vs BIL) to decide between a high-risk, high-reward yen bet and a safer, rate-oriented dollar exposure. - The “wt-cash-equal” nodes imply that, within whichever branch is active, the component assets would be weighted evenly, though in practice there is only one instrument in each branch today (YCS or BIL). - The strategy does not commit to fixed periodic rebalancing; it uses signals to determine the active position and allows a small drift tolerance (0.1 corridor) before a reallocation would be considered. The overall framework is tactical and signal-driven rather than a long-term, static allocation. - Risks: Leveraged yen exposure (YCS) amplifies moves in yen; yen can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly; USD momentum signals can reverse quickly; BIL is sensitive to rate expectations and monetary conditions; cross-asset timing errors can cause drawdowns; liquidity and costs of levered ETF exposure matter. - Overall, the plan seeks to capture a scenario in which a stronger USD coincides with yen weakness (risk-on for USD/yield environment) while defaulting to a safer, short-term USD asset when USD momentum is mixed or when bond/bill momentum favors a safer stance.

Out-of-sample results show attractive risk-adjusted gains with far less downside than the S&P: Calmar 1.34, max drawdown 8.36% vs 18.76%, Sharpe ~1.0, and 11.23% annualized return. Diversifies with currency/rate signals and a tactical yen play.