Holy Grail | KMLM | Simplified | No FR | Longer backtest
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Tech‑first, tactical timer: levered long Nasdaq in bull phases; flips to cash, Treasuries, or short Nasdaq in bears. Decisions use a 200‑day trend filter plus RSI and short‑term return/trend checks. High turnover and high risk.
Calls the market “bull” when SPY is above its 200‑day average (a long‑term trend line); otherwise “bear.”
• Bull: usually buys QLD (2x Nasdaq 100). If tech (XLK) looks weaker than managed‑futures KMLM, it holds BIL (T‑bills).
• Bear: toggles among PSQ/QID (short Nasdaq), Treasuries (TLT/IEF/AGG), or brief 3x bull bursts (TECL/SPXL) using RSI (0–100 gauge of recent speed; low=oversold) plus short‑term trend/return checks.
Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample, this tech-led strategy targets higher upside with strong risk-adjusted returns vs SPY: ~96.5% annualized vs 50.6%, Calmar ~6.34. Daily rebalancing with hedges (bills, Treasuries, shorts) seeks growth with disciplined risk; bear markets may see larger drawdowns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 5, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend-following, momentum, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, risk-on/risk-off, tech-heavy, treasuries, managed futures
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 13 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
KMLM
KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks