High or Normal Inflation? | Leveraged
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rule‑based, leveraged strategy that classifies market trend and inflation pressure, then rotates among 2x Nasdaq/S&P, inverse hedges, and Treasury ETFs. It aims to ride trends, fade extremes, and adapt to inflation—at the cost of very high volatility and risk.
1) Stock trend: SPY vs its 200‑day avg (below = bear, above = bull).
2) Inflation: long‑Treasury trend (TLT vs 400‑day avg) plus T‑bills vs 7–10yr bonds (BIL vs IEF).
3) Bulls: mostly 2x Nasdaq (QLD), but after sharp drops/spikes or when overheated (RSI, 0–100: <30 washed‑out, >80 hot) it briefly hedges (‑2x QID) or moves to Treasuries (TMF). Bears: favor hedges (QID) or bonds (BSV/TLT), with some rebound tries (QLD/SSO). A sleeve rotates QLD vs 3x Treasury short (TMV).
Out-of-sample: ~39% annualized return vs SPY ~24%, Calmar ~1.07, Sharpe ~1.08. Regime-driven trend-following with inflation hedges. Higher volatility and drawdowns than SPY, but stronger upside potential.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.43 | 0.93 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 906.95% | 14.74% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.89 | |
| 481,387.57% | 65.67% | 0.86% | -6.37% | 1.55 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$48,148,757.21Regulatory Fees
$67,271.16
Total Slippage
$471,190.26
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 15, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged, regime-switching, trend-following, momentum, mean-reversion, inflation-aware, tactical etfs, long/short
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks