Hg Short Only V0.2 (57,19,2011)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Short‑biased, daily ETF strategy that times the market. Uses SPY trend and a “hot/cold” reading to hold bonds (BOND), bet on fear spikes (UVXY), or short the Nasdaq (SQQQ). Sometimes parks in the U.S. dollar (UUP). No long stock exposure.
Daily check: Is the S&P 500 (SPY) above its long-term average? If yes: if the market looks overheated (a “hot/cold” meter called RSI is very high), bet on a short-term pullback via UVXY (jumps when fear rises); otherwise sit in BOND (core bonds). If SPY is weak: usually stay in BOND; after big drops, sometimes buy UVXY on sharp bounces; if weakness persists, short tech via SQQQ (3× inverse Nasdaq). At times it parks in the U.S. dollar (UUP).
Out-of-sample edge: A short-biased, market-timing strategy with higher risk-adjusted returns (Calmar ~10.6), far lower drawdown (~4.3% vs ~12.5%), and annualized return ~45% vs ~29% for the S&P 500; Sharpe ~1.73 vs ~1.39.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | -0.79 | 0.13 | -0.36 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 523.58% | 13.95% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.87 | |
| 51,384.49% | 56.14% | -1.01% | 0.88% | 1.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$5,148,449.26Regulatory Fees
$8,975.13
Total Slippage
$60,874.66
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 27, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Short-bias, tactical etf, volatility, inverse/leveraged, market timing, bonds, defensive
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BOND
PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UDN
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks