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About
A daily, rule-based multi-asset strategy that blends stocks, commodities, gold, and currency hedges, using bear-market signals, volatility screening, and momentum (RSI) ranking to pick a single top asset (or a hedged mix) with equal weighting within the active branch.
Plain-language description of how it operates:
- It runs every day and decides where to put your money across a mix of stocks, commodities, and hedges.
- First, it checks whether the market looks bearish. If yes, it shifts toward safer assets like USDU (USD bull) and BTAL (anti-beta hedge), rather than pure stocks.
- If the market doesn’t look bearish, it runs a series of checks to identify which ETFs are showing uptrends or strong momentum using simple price rules (e.g., is today’s price above a moving average? is momentum strong?).
- The strategy creates two candidate pools: one with higher volatility (more aggressive) and one with lower volatility (more defensive). It then filters and ranks these candidates using volatility and return metrics.
- Among the filtered candidates, it ranks them by a momentum measure (RSI) and picks the top asset to hold. In practice, this means the algorithm tends to hold the strongest recent performer according to its RSI-based score.
- It also considers hedges and diversifiers (gold GLD, oil PDBC, USD proxies USDU/UUP, bonds like TLT, TIP) to balance the portfolio against inflation, growth, and currency risk.
- The final step is an equal-weight allocation within the chosen branch where there may be a single primary holding, and any hedging components are sized to complement that holding. The daily rebalance means the exact holding can change as signals update.
- Important note for a layman: This is not a simple buy-and-hold strategy. It’s a rule-based system designed to adapt to changing market regimes by mixing assets that perform well in different conditions and by hedging risk with currency, gold, and commodity exposures.
Outperforms the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis: higher out-of-sample returns (31.45% vs 24.62%), lower max drawdown (8.41% vs 18.76%), and a gentler beta (~0.78). A daily, adaptive multi-asset strategy with hedges.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, tactical allocation, momentum, risk management, usd/gold/commodities hedges
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
GDXJ
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
OILK
ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF
Stocks
PDBC
Invesco Actively Managed Exch-Traded Commodity Fd Tr Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks