A market-timing strategy that tries to own strong stock funds in good times and rotate into defensive assets like the U.S. dollar, energy, staples, commodities, or hedged funds in bad times.

This strategy checks the market’s mood every day. If the U.S. stock market looks healthy, it picks whichever has stronger recent momentum: the broad market (SPY) or a more aggressive stock/risk-on mix. If the market looks weak, it rotates into whichever is strongest among defensive areas like consumer staples, energy, or a cash/defense sub-strategy. That defensive mix can shift into the U.S. dollar, a market-neutral fund, bonds-sensitive signals, commodities, oil, materials, gold miners, or tech.

Out-of-sample: ~23.5% annualized return vs SPY's 22.5%, lower max drawdown (15.2% vs 18.8%), and beta ~0.81. Higher risk-adjusted return (Calmar ~1.55) from proactive trend-following and defensive rotation.