Hedged Regime Switching - RSI Hedge
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules-based switcher. It first checks for panic (via UVXY) to hedge. Then it decides “bull” or “bear” from SPY’s RSI. In bull it buys US stock funds (sometimes leveraged) on dips; in bear it uses inverse funds or parks in cash-like T‑bills.
Each day it:
1) Looks for panic: if volatility (UVXY) is surging, it hedges with UVXY or moves to a short Nasdaq fund (PSQ) or short‑term bonds (BSV).
2) Chooses a regime from SPY’s long‑term RSI (0–100 “heat” gauge): >50 = bull, else bear.
• Bull: buy broad US stocks (SPY/QQQ) or a leveraged version on dips; or hold short‑term Treasuries (SHY).
• Bear: take brief bounces, use inverse funds (e.g., QID/SQQQ), or sit in T‑bills (BIL).
Also uses moving averages (trend filters).
Out-of-sample, this rules-based strategy targets higher upside (38.4% vs 23.2%), lower beta (~0.63), and strong risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ~1.44; alpha ~0.23) vs the S&P, aided by volatility hedges and regime switching to outperform over time.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | 0.37 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620.2% | 14.76% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 555,812.02% | 82.45% | 0.96% | -4.86% | 1.79 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$55,591,202.16Regulatory Fees
$238,087.61
Total Slippage
$1,688,543.55
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 27, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, trend + mean reversion, leveraged/inverse etfs, volatility hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 17 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks