A daily, rules-based hedged regime-switching strategy that rotates between stock exposure and hedges/defensive bets using momentum (RSI) and trend (200-day mean) signals, selecting a single asset from a small pool to own at a time and adding UVXY or defensive ETFs during risk spikes.

What it is: A rules-based, daily-rebalanced strategy that shifts between stock exposure and hedges/defensive bets using momentum and trend signals. How it works (high level): - It looks at short-term momentum (RSI over 10 days) on SPY and QQQ. If momentum is extremely high (RSI around 80 or more), it buys a hedge ETF (UVXY) to dampen potential crash losses. If momentum isn’t extreme, it proceeds to a bear/short-market overlay that seeks a single defensive/short asset from a small pool based on a 20-day RSI ranking. - Separately, it runs a core “Fund Surf” that screens a list of broad-market/defensive ETFs and, when SPY is in a positive long-term trend (price above its 200-day moving average), selects the single asset with the lowest 20-day RSI (the most oversold among the group) to own 100% of the capital assigned to that layer. - The pool for the bottom-RSI pick typically includes SHY (short Treasuries), QLD (2x S&P 500), SSO (2x S&P 500), SPY (S&P 500), and QQQ (Nasdaq 100). The bottom RSI asset is owned to a full weight, with other assets either not held or held as a small cash balance depending on the specific sub-layer. - Other layers introduce defensive tilts when other signals fire (e.g., UUP for dollar strength vs TLT for long-term bonds, and occasional inclusion of small-cap or sector ETFs like XLP). These are activated by additional moving-average checks and crossovers rather than simple price signals. - The overall design aims to stay invested in equities in normal conditions, while systematically hedging or shifting into safer assets when signals show elevated risk, and then re-entering risk-on when signals normalize. It’s a multi-layer, single-asset-at-a-time rotation with an explicit hedging overlay and trend confirmation checks. What you might actually see: most days a single core asset is highlighted to own (from a small pool), with a potential hedge in place if risk signals spike. In risk-off regimes, you could see UVXY or defensive ETFs elevated. Impact on risk/return: aims to reduce drawdowns during crashes while still participating in upside, but the rules can produce choppier performance in sideways markets and depend on precise threshold choices and data timing.

Dynamic, hedged regime-switching strategy offers higher upside than the S&P 500. OOS annualized return ~36% vs ~23%; Calmar ~1.33, Sharpe ~1.33, with an active hedging overlay to dampen spikes.