Hedged Regime Switching 2.2
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, volatility-aware ETF rotation. It first hedges extremes (UVXY or short/bonds), then uses trend and mean‑reversion to switch among US stocks (SPY/QQQ, sometimes 2×), Treasuries (SHY/BSV/TLT), the US dollar (UUP), or defensive/inverse (XLP/QID).
Signals: RSI (0–100 “heat”; 80+ too hot, 30- too cold) and 50/200‑day moving averages (trend). Daily:
1) If S&P or Nasdaq too hot (RSI≥80) → hedge with UVXY (volatility).
2) Else if UVXY is hot (RSI>70) → go to PSQ (short Nasdaq) or BSV (short‑term bonds), whichever is more washed out.
3) Else trend filter:
- Above 200‑day → buy the most oversold of SPY/QQQ or 2× (SSO/QLD), or SHY.
- Below → pick TLT or UUP via bond trend; in deep weakness: QLD for bounce if oversold, else split QID + XLP.
Out-of-sample, this volatility-aware ETF rotation aims for higher long-run returns (≈36% vs 23% for SPY) with solid risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ≈1.33) and adaptive hedges, designed to outperform the S&P 500 over market cycles.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 123,208.09% | 64.06% | -3.41% | -3.49% | 1.69 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,330,808.95Regulatory Fees
$48,381.07
Total Slippage
$330,288.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 27, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical etf rotation, trend + mean reversion, volatility hedge, inverse etfs, bonds/usd defensives, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks