Hedged Regime Switching 2.2
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, tactical plan: read long‑term trend and short‑term “heat,” add a volatility hedge when markets run hot, buy dips in uptrends, and in downtrends shift to bonds, the dollar, or a defensive hedge using inverse tech and staples.
Daily it checks trend (SPY vs its 200‑day average) and heat (10‑day RSI = speed/overheat). If SPY/QQQ (S&P 500 / Nasdaq‑100) run very hot, it hedges with UVXY (volatility). If vol spikes, it parks in BSV (short bonds) or PSQ (inverse QQQ). In uptrends, it buys the most “on‑sale” of SPY/QQQ or 2x funds; otherwise SHY (short Treasuries). In downtrends, it holds Treasuries or the US dollar; if deeply oversold it tries a QQQ rebound, else splits inverse QQQ with staples.
Adaptive daily regime-switching with volatility hedges. Out-of-sample: ~36% annualized return vs ~23% S&P, solid risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar ~1.33, Sharpe ~1.33). Seeks upside in uptrends while guarding during volatility.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620.2% | 14.76% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.91 | |
| 131,121.45% | 64.97% | 0.96% | -4.86% | 1.71 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$13,122,145.29Regulatory Fees
$47,662.23
Total Slippage
$325,237.31
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 27, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend + mean‑reversion, volatility hedge, tactical rotation, leveraged/inverse etfs, daily rebalance, us equities/bonds/dollar, defensive sector
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Stocks