HEDGED & LEVERAGED - BONDS & STOCKS - V2.1.1 - BT 12-6-2012 Replace UPRO with TECL, TQQQ, and SOXL
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily trend-and-momentum rotation using leveraged ETFs. Bonds set the master risk regime; tech-heavy when both bonds and stocks trend up, defensive in Treasuries or T‑Bills when risk rises, and otherwise backs recent winners with a cash buffer.
Each day it checks trends using moving averages (today’s price vs the average over the last 150/200/23 days). If long‑term Treasuries and stocks are both rising, it splits across 3x tech, 3x Treasuries, and a hedged S&P fund. If stocks are weak, it parks in Treasuries. If Treasuries are weak, it either holds recent short‑term winners (inverse Treasuries, 3x Dow, or T‑Bills) or puts 75% in the single best 30‑day performer from a mixed stock/bond list.
Out-of-sample: ~29% annualized return vs SPY ~23%, with Calmar ~0.84 and a bond-led risk regime that rotates into leveraged tech. Higher upside, but expect larger drawdowns in bear markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | 0.74 | 0.16 | 0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 495.99% | 14.43% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.88 | |
| 18,023.9% | 48.08% | -3.36% | 12.33% | 1.42 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,812,389.95Regulatory Fees
$7,986.51
Total Slippage
$50,033.24
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, leveraged etfs, risk-on/risk-off, stocks & treasuries, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BRK/B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY Class B
Stocks
MOAT
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF
Stocks
PHDG
Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks