HEDGED & LEVERAGED - BONDS & STOCKS - V2.1.1 - BT 12-6-2012 Replace UPRO with TECL, TQQQ, and SOXL
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rules-based, daily trend/momentum switcher that rotates between 3× tech/stocks, long or short long‑term Treasuries, quality/low‑vol stocks, and cash‑like T‑bills to seek strong gains with crash protection.
Daily it checks two trends: are long‑term US Treasury bonds (TLT) and the S&P 500 above their long‑term averages? If both are, it splits across 3× tech funds (TECL, TQQQ, SOXL), a 3× Treasury fund (TMF), and a hedged stock fund (PHDG). If stocks are weak but Treasuries strong, it sits in TLT. If Treasuries aren’t strong, it either rides short‑term winners among shorting Treasuries (TMV), a 3× Dow fund (UDOW), or T‑bills (BIL), or puts most money in the best 1‑month performer (TMF, UPRO, TMV, MOAT, BRK.B, USMV).
Out-of-sample return ~29% vs SPY ~23%; regime-switching across leveraged tech and Treasuries with crash protection. Higher upside than SPY, with built-in risk controls—note drawdowns can be larger in downturns.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Dec 17, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, momentum, leveraged etfs, bonds + stocks, daily rebalance, downside hedge
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BRK/B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY Class B
Stocks
MOAT
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF
Stocks
PHDG
Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks