A rules-based, three-bucket (Growth/Yield/Preservation) ETF strategy for a medium-aggressive retirement, tilting toward tech exposure when momentum is favorable, tilting to bonds and hedges when risk rises, and using trend/momentum rules to select top asset combinations with diversified ballast.

- The strategy divides capital into three buckets: Growth, Yield, and Preservation. Each bucket uses a rules-based engine to pick one or more ETFs to hold and to decide how much to allocate to them. The rules rely on simple, familiar ideas: - Momentum: has the asset been rising recently? (RSI and cumulative-return signals) - Trend/volatility: is volatility high or low and is the price trend consistent? - Diversification: we mix stocks (growth), bonds (income), and hedges (gold, dollar, commodities) to reduce risk. - Growth looks to capture stock-market upside, using a levered tech exposure (QLD) when the signals say “go for it,” otherwise defaulting to broad-market exposure (SPY) or even defensive assets if risk is high. It uses several look-back periods (roughly 21–60 days) to judge momentum and risk. - Yield tilts toward bonds and stable income, but with a guardrail: if volatility rises, the system shifts toward shorter-duration or cash-like assets. A separate “bond v2” module cherry-picks the strongest performers from a pool of bond-like assets and uses a top-two/70-30 weighting to keep risk in check. - Preservation uses trend/momentum to pick a smaller, two-asset core with a gold hedge; it aims to keep capital safe while still offering some diversification benefits. - Rebalancing is not forced on a fixed schedule here; instead, changes happen when the signal thresholds are crossed. This keeps the system responsive but not constantly trading. - In short: it’s a three-pill, rules-based plan that tries to grow, collect income, and preserve capital, using momentum and volatility signals to shift among a basket of well-known ETFs rather than individual stocks.

Out-of-sample this strategy beats the S&P: higher risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ~1.87 vs ~1.44), lower drawdowns (~9.4% vs ~18.8%), and higher annualized return (~24.6% vs ~23%). Diversified Growth/Yield/Preservation with hedges.