Gold and Silver 1D Mean Reversion
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
Daily gold/silver strategy that shifts between safety (SHY) and metals using a market fear gauge. In medium fear it buys dips and shorts pops with scaled 2x ETFs; otherwise it holds core metals or Treasuries. High risk, very active.
It runs two sleeves (gold and silver). First, it checks market “fear” with a 0–100 speed score on UVXY (a volatility ETF).
- Extreme/high fear: hide in SHY (short‑term Treasuries); in high fear it only holds metal if above its 5‑day average.
- Medium fear: bet on snap‑backs—after big 1‑day drops, buy (often with 2x ETFs); after big 1‑day spikes, take short 2x positions. Bigger moves = more 2x exposure.
- Very low fear: hold core gold (GLD/IAU/SGOL) and core silver (SLV/SIVR).
Leveraged/inverse ETFs (UGL/JNUG/NUGT; GLL/DZZ/DUST/JDST; AGQ/ZSL) are short‑term and risky.
Out-of-sample, this metals strategy posts higher annualized return (28.4% vs 22.4%), sharper risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ~1.59 vs 1.41), far lower max drawdown (10.6% vs 18.8%), and positive alpha with a Calmar ~2.66, plus built-in hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 409.4% | 14.19% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.86 | |
| 309.63% | 12.18% | 14.45% | 27.93% | 0.87 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$40,963.27Regulatory Fees
$325.21
Total Slippage
$1,921.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Gold, silver, mean reversion, volatility regime, leveraged/inverse etfs, tactical, precious metals, treasuries (shy)
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 16 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGQ
ProShares Ultra Silver
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks
DZZ
DB Gold Double Short ETN due February 15, 2038
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
GLL
ProShares UltraShort Gold
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
JDST
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares
Stocks
JNUG
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares
Stocks
NUGT
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares
Stocks
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
Stocks