Gold and Silver 1D Mean Reversion
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily gold/silver strategy that buys dips and shorts pops (using 2x ETFs) when markets are normal, but hides in short‑term Treasuries when fear is high. Position size scales with yesterday’s move; otherwise it holds core gold/silver funds.
Two sleeves: gold and silver. Each day it:
1) Checks market “fear” (UVXY’s recent strength). If fear is extreme or low‑moderate, it parks in SHY (short‑term Treasuries). If fear is high, it only owns metals when price is above its 5‑day average.
2) In normal/medium fear, it bets on snap‑backs: after a big down day it buys 2x bull metal funds (gold: UGL/NUGT/JNUG; silver: AGQ), sized by how big the drop was. After a big up day it uses −2x bear funds (gold: GLL/DZZ/DUST/JDST; silver: ZSL). Otherwise it holds core metal funds (gold: GLD/IAU/SGOL; silver: SLV/SIVR).
Out-of-sample edge: 28.1% annualized return vs SPY’s 22.5%, 10.6% max drawdown vs 18.8%, Sharpe 1.58 vs 1.41, Calmar 2.64, and low beta (~0.13) — a stronger, smoother risk-adjusted path than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 394.03% | 13.72% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.84 | |
| 443.08% | 14.59% | -4.09% | 40.65% | 0.98 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$54,308.41Regulatory Fees
$367.37
Total Slippage
$2,193.71
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 6, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Precious-metals, tactical mean reversion, volatility regimes, leveraged etfs, gold, silver, treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 16 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGQ
ProShares Ultra Silver
Stocks
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X ETF
Stocks
DZZ
DB Gold Double Short ETN due February 15, 2038
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
GLL
ProShares UltraShort Gold
Stocks
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
Stocks
JDST
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X ETF
Stocks
JNUG
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
NUGT
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
SGOL
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF
Stocks