GBTC RSI TMF WGMI checks
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Rule-based crypto tilt: buy Bitcoin after a short-term drop; if not and bonds are sliding, own the stronger crypto-stock ETF (BLOK or WGMI); otherwise hold T‑Bills (BIL). One position at a time; switches only when rules change.
Holds one fund at a time based on two checks.
1) If Bitcoin has fallen fast over ~10 days (RSI, a simple “speed of moves” gauge, is <32), buy GBTC (a Bitcoin fund).
2) Else, if long‑term Treasuries (TMF, a leveraged bond fund used only as a signal) had a big recent drop (worst 10‑day peak‑to‑trough loss ≥ ~10%), buy the stronger of BLOK (blockchain stocks) or WGMI (Bitcoin miners).
3) Otherwise, stay in BIL (T‑Bills, cash‑like).
Out-of-sample, this strategy yields ~25.13% annualized return vs SPY’s ~20.41%, with lower beta (~0.75) and a Calmar near 1—strong upside with disciplined risk control via a crypto/timing overlay and cash fallback.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.03 | 1.18 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.09% | 13.18% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 8.96% | 2.14% | 13.12% | 0.16% | 0.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$10,895.75Regulatory Fees
$26.35
Total Slippage
$150.96
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto timing, bitcoin/blockchain equities, oversold buying, risk-on/off rotation, single-asset switch, cash fallback
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total