GBTC RSI TMF WGMI checks
Today’s Change (Apr 15, 2026)
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About
Rule-based crypto tilt: buy Bitcoin after a short-term drop; if not and bonds are sliding, own the stronger crypto-stock ETF (BLOK or WGMI); otherwise hold T‑Bills (BIL). One position at a time; switches only when rules change.
Holds one fund at a time based on two checks.
1) If Bitcoin has fallen fast over ~10 days (RSI, a simple “speed of moves” gauge, is <32), buy GBTC (a Bitcoin fund).
2) Else, if long‑term Treasuries (TMF, a leveraged bond fund used only as a signal) had a big recent drop (worst 10‑day peak‑to‑trough loss ≥ ~10%), buy the stronger of BLOK (blockchain stocks) or WGMI (Bitcoin miners).
3) Otherwise, stay in BIL (T‑Bills, cash‑like).
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~25% annual return vs SPY ~20%, with Calmar near 1. It rotates into crypto themes on risk signals and into cash otherwise, offering higher upside potential but with larger drawdowns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.04 | 1.16 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.37% | 13.96% | 4.09% | 0.87% | 0.83 | |
| 7.06% | 1.67% | 4.79% | 4.67% | 0.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$10,706.15Regulatory Fees
$25.70
Total Slippage
$146.82
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto timing, bitcoin/blockchain equities, oversold buying, risk-on/off rotation, single-asset switch, cash fallback
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total