GBTC RSI TMF WGMI checks
Today’s Change (Aug 6, 2026)
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About
Rule-based crypto tilt: buy Bitcoin after a short-term drop; if not and bonds are sliding, own the stronger crypto-stock ETF (BLOK or WGMI); otherwise hold T‑Bills (BIL). One position at a time; switches only when rules change.
Holds one fund at a time based on two checks.
1) If Bitcoin has fallen fast over ~10 days (RSI, a simple “speed of moves” gauge, is <32), buy GBTC (a Bitcoin fund).
2) Else, if long‑term Treasuries (TMF, a leveraged bond fund used only as a signal) had a big recent drop (worst 10‑day peak‑to‑trough loss ≥ ~10%), buy the stronger of BLOK (blockchain stocks) or WGMI (Bitcoin miners).
3) Otherwise, stay in BIL (T‑Bills, cash‑like).
Out-of-sample edge: ~23% annualized return vs ~21% for the S&P, with a low beta (~0.77) and a disciplined, single-position rotation into Bitcoin/crypto themes or cash. Diversifies crypto exposure with a built-in risk-off buffer.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.05 | 1.13 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.45% | 15.64% | 2.46% | 6.63% | 0.92 | |
| 11.4% | 2.47% | 0.17% | 3.76% | 0.28 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$11,139.89Regulatory Fees
$25.08
Total Slippage
$174.13
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto timing, bitcoin/blockchain equities, oversold buying, risk-on/off rotation, single-asset switch, cash fallback
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total