GBTC RSI TMF WGMI checks
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
Rule-based crypto tilt: buy Bitcoin after a short-term drop; if not and bonds are sliding, own the stronger crypto-stock ETF (BLOK or WGMI); otherwise hold T‑Bills (BIL). One position at a time; switches only when rules change.
Holds one fund at a time based on two checks.
1) If Bitcoin has fallen fast over ~10 days (RSI, a simple “speed of moves” gauge, is <32), buy GBTC (a Bitcoin fund).
2) Else, if long‑term Treasuries (TMF, a leveraged bond fund used only as a signal) had a big recent drop (worst 10‑day peak‑to‑trough loss ≥ ~10%), buy the stronger of BLOK (blockchain stocks) or WGMI (Bitcoin miners).
3) Otherwise, stay in BIL (T‑Bills, cash‑like).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~25.13% vs S&P 20.41%; alpha ~0.12; Calmar ~1.0. Drawdowns ~25% vs ~19%; Sharpe ~0.87 vs 1.14. Higher upside in crypto cycles with a simple, rule-based, single-asset rotation.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.05 | 1.16 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.89% | 14.46% | 9.27% | 4.88% | 0.85 | |
| 7.13% | 1.68% | 4.82% | 4.69% | 0.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$10,713.17Regulatory Fees
$25.70
Total Slippage
$146.82
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 10, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Crypto timing, bitcoin/blockchain equities, oversold buying, risk-on/off rotation, single-asset switch, cash fallback
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 5 assets in total