A wave-riding strategy that buys 3x leveraged bets (UPRO/TECL) only when their momentum shows a dip and is relatively stronger than short-term Treasuries, filtered by market volatility. It layers in risk-off hedges (UUP/GLD/XLP) and drawdown checks to guard against big losses, with no frequent rebalancing.

- Objective: catch favorable dips in the momentum of highly leveraged stock bets, but only when those bets look comparatively stronger than short-term Treasuries. - Core bets: UPRO (3x S&P 500) and TECL (3x Technology) as the main long positions when the rules allow. SHY (short-term U.S. Treasuries) is used as a bond proxy to compare “risk-on” versus “risk-off” reward signals. - How entry works (layman terms): when a leverage fund’s short-term momentum indicator (RSI) shows it’s oversold, and its strength relative to SHY is favorable, the strategy considers buying the leveraged fund. In practice this means looking for times when the beaten-down leveraged fund has a stronger setup than bonds, suggesting a potential rebound. - Volatility/market-swing check: the strategy also looks at how volatile the market has been (using SPY’s recent returns). It calculates two volatility measures (one based on a 1% window and one on a 2% window) and averages them to decide whether conditions are calm enough to act. If volatility is in a window that looks acceptable, the dip-buy signal is more likely to fire; if not, it may stay out. - Risk-on vs risk-off branches: the logic includes multiple branches labeled Bear BUYDIPS, Bull HFEAR, Risk ON, and Risk OFF. These branches determine how aggressively to pursue long bets and when to shift toward hedges. In risk-off scenarios, a basket of defensive assets (UUP for dollar strength, GLD for gold, XLP as a relatively defensive sector) can be favored to reduce drawdown. - Safety and hedges: the strategy uses a Safety Mix (UUP, GLD, XLP) as a cushion in tougher markets. It also monitors larger drawdowns (e.g., a 252-day look at SPY) to decide if risk-off should dominate. - Trade signal cadence: there is no automatic frequent rebalancing; signals are evaluated in layers, and only when all (or most) conditions align does a trade get placed. - The goal of the layered checks is to tilt exposure toward leveraged equity during favorable dip opportunities while leaning on defensive assets when downside risk is rising.

Amplified upside from 3x leveraged bets on favorable dips, with volatility checks and hedges. Out-of-sample: ~39% annualized vs ~23% for the S&P, but larger drawdowns (~53%) and higher volatility.