Funcle Irrational Analysis 2026 Irrational Ideas Tech Infrastructure
Today’s Change (Aug 18, 2026)
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About
Tech‑infrastructure momentum with safety rails: invest only when QQQ’s long‑term trend is up; then, if LITE/TSEM/CAMT show short‑term strength, concentrate roughly 61/28/11% in the top 3 one‑year winners from a 7‑stock basket; else sit in BIL (cash‑like).
1) Market filter: risk‑on only if QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF) is above its 200‑day average price. Else hold BIL (T‑bill ETF).
2) If risk‑on, three checks ask whether LITE, TSEM, and CAMT are above their ~50‑day averages. Each passing check buys the top 1, then top 2, then top 3 one‑year performers from a 7‑stock tech‑infrastructure basket (Intel, Ciena, Lumentum, Tower, Camtek, SiTime, Bloom Energy). Any failed check parks that slice in BIL. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample edge: ~122% annualized return with Calmar ~4.6 vs SPY ~27% and Calmar ~3.0. Higher drawdowns (~26% vs ~9%), but risk-adjusted upside is compelling in tech-infrastructure momentum with cash guardrails.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.71 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135.19% | 16.16% | 3.95% | 4.88% | 0.98 | |
| 402.16% | 32.66% | -2.47% | -5.84% | 0.87 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$50,216.15Regulatory Fees
$72.88
Total Slippage
$415.46
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum, trend-following, tech infrastructure, semiconductors, tactical, risk-on/off, concentrated, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BE
Bloom Energy Corporation
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CAMT
Camtek Ltd
Stocks
CIEN
Ciena Corporation
Stocks
INTC
Intel Corp
Stocks
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SITM
SiTime Corporation Common Stock
Stocks
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
Stocks