A daily, rules-based strategy. It uses a long-term trend filter and a short-term “heat gauge” (RSI). In uptrends it holds a small TQQQ stake unless overheated (then UVXY). In downtrends it buys small bounces or rotates to Treasuries or a small bearish Nasdaq bet, with most cash in SHV.

1) Trend check: Is SPY above its 200‑day average? If yes (uptrend): hold a small slice of TQQQ (3x Nasdaq) and park the rest in SHV (cash‑like Treasuries)—unless the market looks “too hot” (RSI, a 0–100 heat gauge; > ~80). If it’s too hot, switch to UVXY (spikes when fear rises) + SHV. 2) If not (downtrend): after sharp drops (RSI < ~30) buy small bounce bets in TECL or UPRO + SHV. Otherwise, if tech is weak short term, pick either long Treasuries (TLT) or a small bearish Nasdaq bet (SQQQ) + SHV, whichever shows stronger recent strength. Rebalanced daily; most money sits in SHV to limit risk. Each risky slice targets ~1% portfolio risk.

Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted returns and lower drawdowns than the S&P 500. Sharpe ~1.21 vs ~1.16, annualized return ~21.9% vs ~19.3%, max drawdown ~14.6% vs ~18.8%, beta ~0.67, Calmar ~1.50. Greater upside with disciplined risk control.