A daily, rule-based rotation between a cash proxy and a basket of ETFs (SPY, QQQ, XLP/XLV/XLF/XLK/XLE) guided by RSI and moving-average signals, with Bull/Bear branches and a Safety overlay to curb risk during volatility spikes. Backtest from 1999 with equity focus; BRK/A sometimes used as cash proxy.

- It starts with a cash-like position (and can swap BRK/A for cash in some setups). Then it looks at a basket of big-market ETFs: SPY (broad market), QQQ (tech-heavy Nasdaq), and sector funds like XLP, XLV, XLF, XLK, XLE. - The system computes momentum signals mostly using RSI (a price-velocity gauge) and compares prices to moving averages to judge trend direction. For example, it checks instances like “RSI of SPY above a high threshold” to decide risk-on moves, or “RSI below a low threshold” to consider mean-reversion or risk-off moves. - There are three main decision themes: Mean Reversion (looking for reversals after oversold/overbought readings), Bull (conditions that favor taking more market exposure), and Bear (conditions that favor reducing exposure). - A Safety layer uses a volatility-like measure on sector ETFs (XLP and XLV) in an inverse form to decide when to scale back risk. If volatility cues rise, the system trims exposure to protect capital. - The strategy often routes more exposure toward broad market or tech-oriented ETFs when signals align (Bull), and toward cash or safer assets when signals misalign (Bear). The decisions are implemented as a chain of nested tests; if one condition fails, the next condition is evaluated, and so on, until a group is chosen or cash is favored. - Rebalancing happens daily, so weights are updated every trading day. The backtest context suggests the model was designed to run from 1999 with daily checks, which tests its resilience across many market regimes.

Out-of-sample, this strategy yields ~34.98% annualized return, ~12.39% max drawdown, and Sharpe ~1.73, vs SPY’s ~18.45% return, ~18.76% drawdown, and Sharpe ~1.05. Higher upside with tighter risk than the S&P 500.