Franklin Simple Regime Switching, Dip Buying, Shorting with Leveraged Nasdaq (2x), and MACD
Today’s Change (Oct 22, 2026)
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About
A market-timing strategy that goes aggressive in good markets, defensive in weak ones, buys sharp dips, and may bet against the Nasdaq during deeper downturns.
The strategy first asks: is the overall U.S. stock market in a healthy uptrend? It uses SPY (a stand-in for the whole U.S. market) to decide.
If yes, it buys QLD, a fund that aims to amplify gains of the Nasdaq-100 (big tech-heavy companies).
If not, it gets defensive. In some weak periods it moves to UUP, which benefits from a stronger U.S. dollar. In deeper downturns, it either buys a hard selloff (“dip buying”) with QLD, or splits between QID (which rises when the Nasdaq falls) and XLP (defensive consumer-staples stocks).
Out-of-sample: ~39.6% annualized return vs SPY ~21.8%, Calmar 1.24, Sharpe ~1.09. Captures Nasdaq upside in uptrends and adds defenses in downturns, delivering stronger long-term growth with disciplined risk control vs S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.88 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 658.9% | 10.87% | -0.05% | 3.57% | 0.63 | |
| 35,970.23% | 34.95% | -4.97% | 2.53% | 1.08 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$3,607,023.18Regulatory Fees
$1,481.42
Total Slippage
$10,576.51
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 26, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, trend following, mean reversion, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, nasdaq-focused, defensive rotation