A rule-based, non-rebalanced strategy that shifts between 2x Nasdaq exposure (QLD) and defensive/alternative bets (QID, UUP, XLP) guided by SPY’s trend (200-day MA) and momentum (RSI). It aims to ride Nasdaq in up markets and lean into USD/defensives when markets weaken, using equal-weight allocations when active. Leveraged Nasdaq exposure and rapid regime switches drive performance and risk.

- The plan uses SPY (S&P 500) as the signal backbone and then chooses among a few assets: QLD (2x Nasdaq), QID (inverse Nasdaq), UUP (US dollar index), and XLP (consumer staples sector). SPY acts as a proxy for overall market health. - If SPY is trading above its long-term trend (its price is above its 200-day moving average), the strategy goes into a Nasdaq-leveraged stance by buying QLD. This is the “bullish Nasdaq” regime. - If SPY is not above the 200-day level (the market looks weaker), the system shifts toward USD/defensive signals. It checks the dollar index (UUP) via a moving-average test to decide whether to tilt toward USD exposure or stay in a mixed defensive posture. - In the weaker regime, it uses a momentum rule based on SPY’s 10-day RSI (a momentum/overbought-oversold measure). If SPY RSI(10) is below 30 (very oversold), the system again targets Nasdaq with QLD in an expectation of a rebound. If RSI is not that oversold (RSI ≥ 30), it instead shifts toward hedges: QID (inverse Nasdaq) and XLP (consumer staples) as a defensive mix. - All allocations are cash-equal when active (equal weight across the chosen assets). There is no fixed rebalance schedule; the positions are meant to be updated when the signals indicate a regime switch. - The description mentions MACD as a tested addition to the regime logic, but notes that it worsened performance or created more issues, suggesting the core regime rules rely on simple trend/momentum checks rather than more complex momentum crossovers. - In practice, leveraged ETFs like QLD and QID reset daily, so long-term performance can diverge from simple multiples of index moves; thus the results cited (CAGR, drawdown) reflect a backtested scenario that includes these path dependencies.

Out-of-sample, it delivers ~41.8% annualized return vs ~23.1% for SPY, with Calmar ~1.31. Leveraged Nasdaq exposure plus regime shifts to USD/defensives target higher upside while preserving solid risk-adjusted performance.