A rules-based, four-corner playbook. It first reacts to short-term extremes, then chooses a diversified mix based on whether growth beats utilities and whether credit beats cash. Uses mostly liquid ETFs, pairs risk assets with bonds/gold, and limits short exposure.

Step 1: Look for quick extremes using RSI (a 0–100 “speedometer” of recent moves). If Nasdaq is washed out (<30), buy a short-term bounce (TQQQ/VGT + Treasuries). If tech/consumer are very hot (>80), hold a short-term defensive pop (long Treasuries, volatility, utilities/staples). Step 2: Otherwise pick 1 of 4 “corners” using two yes/no tests: Is growth (QQQ) beating utilities (VPU)? Is credit (CORP) beating cash (BIL)? Each corner holds a diversified ETF mix tailored to bull, hedge, or bear conditions. Equal weights, liquid funds, small/conditional shorts only. Rebalance on ~5% drift.

Out-of-sample edge: 25.22% annualized return vs 20.38% S&P; max drawdown 13.71% vs 18.76%; Calmar 1.84; Sharpe ~1.18 (comparable). Lower beta (~0.83) means less market sensitivity with higher risk-adjusted return and smaller losses.