A daily market-timing strategy that rotates into the 2 best recent playbooks, buying leveraged stock funds in strong markets and shifting to volatility, defensive, or inverse positions when conditions look risky.

Each day, the strategy looks at 4 aggressive trading playbooks and puts money into the 2 that have done best over the last 10 days. It uses short-term “heat checks” to ask: are stocks getting too hot, too weak, or trending up/down? If markets look overheated, it shifts toward a volatility fund (UVIX) plus safer holdings like T-bills or a defensive stock fund. If markets look washed out or strong, it buys turbocharged stock funds tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, or semiconductors. In weak markets, it may use defensive bond funds or funds that rise when the Nasdaq falls.

Out-of-sample, this strategy vastly outperforms the S&P 500 on risk-adjusted terms: annualized return ~70.9% vs 16.9%, Sharpe ~1.29 vs 1.05, Calmar ~2.16. Higher drawdowns (~32.8%), but much greater upside via adaptive hedging.