Feaver Bear Block V3 05/30/2007
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, rules‑based bear‑market overlay: it usually sits in T‑bills. If the S&P 500 is in a downtrend, it mainly shorts tech via Nasdaq funds (PSQ/QID) and may take quick bounce longs (QQQ/QLD), with extra safety checks.
Daily:
1) If a short‑term “heat” gauge (RSI: 0–100; >79 very hot, <30 very cold) says extremes, sit in cash‑like T‑bills (BIL).
2) Otherwise, check the S&P 500 vs its 200‑day trend: above = stay in BIL; below = run the bear playbook.
3) In bear mode, two mini‑models mostly short the Nasdaq (PSQ=−1x QQQ, QID=−2x) and sometimes take quick bounce longs (QQQ, QLD=+2x) using short‑term trend and Treasury‑bond strength (TLT, IEF). The steadier model gets more weight. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample edge: 18.69% annual return vs 17.05% S&P, lower drawdown (11.5% vs 18.8%), Sharpe 1.19, Calmar 1.62, and negative beta. A bear-overlay strategy that protects on downturns while capturing upside.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 | -0.2 | 0.03 | -0.17 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532.45% | 10.35% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.6 | |
| 13,847.21% | 30.16% | 0.27% | 0.87% | 1.23 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,394,720.81Regulatory Fees
$3,337.64
Total Slippage
$19,163.41
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 28, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Bear-market overlay, tactical etf rotation, inverse etfs, momentum/trend, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IOO
iShares Global 100 ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
VTV
Vanguard Value ETF
Stocks