Fabien Market timing model
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Times the U.S. stock market daily: shorts a bit when things look overheated, buys TQQQ on deep dips, otherwise holds QQQ in uptrends or rotates to defensive sectors (utilities/staples) when trends weaken.
Each day it asks:
1) Is the market overheated? It uses RSI, a 0–100 “heat” score; >75–80 = too hot. If SPY (S&P 500), TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100), XLY (consumer discretionary), or XLP (staples) look too hot, it puts ~40% in SH (an ETF that goes up when the S&P 500 falls).
2) If not hot: if TQQQ is washed out (RSI<31), buy TQQQ. Otherwise follow the 200‑day trend: if SPY and other checks are strong, hold QQQ (Nasdaq‑100); if not, shift to defensive sectors (utilities XLU, staples XLP).
Even through OOS headwinds, this strategy diversifies and protects capital vs the S&P 500: overheated signals trigger ~40% SH hedges; on dips it seeks growth via TQQQ/QQQ and rotates to defensives, aiming for lower drawdown and smoother returns.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | 0.97 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 724.66% | 14.11% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.86 | |
| 19,429.62% | 39.08% | 0.96% | 5% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,952,962.45Regulatory Fees
$5,100.02
Total Slippage
$29,755.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Market timing, trend following, mean reversion, us equities, sector rotation, inverse etf, leveraged etf, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLY
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks