Fabien Market timing model
Today’s Change (Apr 4, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily tactical model: fade overbought markets with a partial S&P 500 short, buy deep tech dips, and otherwise follow the long‑term trend, rotating between QQQ (growth) and defensive sectors (utilities/staples).
Each day it checks a few simple signals.
- If short‑term “heat” is high (RSI) in staples (XLP), tech proxy (TQQQ), discretionary (XLY) or the S&P 500 (SPY), it puts 40% in SH (the inverse S&P 500) and leaves the rest in cash.
- Otherwise, if tech is very washed‑out (RSI low), it buys TQQQ (3x QQQ). If not, it follows the 200‑day trend: if the market is up, prefer QQQ; if not, hold XLU/XLP (defensive).
Tickers: SPY=S&P 500, SH=its inverse, QQQ=Nasdaq‑100, TQQQ=3x QQQ, DIA=Dow, XLU=Utilities, XLP=Staples, XLY=Discretionary. RSI is a 0–100 short‑term “heat” score; the 200‑day average is a long‑term trend line.
Rule-based market timer that fades overboughts and buys dips, with a cash hedge and 40% partial S&P short. Out-of-sample drawdowns are tightly controlled (max ~2.38%), offering downside protection and diversification vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 0.97 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 691.59% | 13.74% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.84 | |
| 20,557.56% | 39.33% | 5.04% | 11.73% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,065,756.45Regulatory Fees
$5,332.40
Total Slippage
$31,229.69
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Market-timing, tactical-allocation, equities, etfs, trend-following, mean-reversion, sector-rotation, shorting, leveraged-etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLY
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks