Fabien Market timing model
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily market-timing for U.S. stocks: short 40% when things look overheated; otherwise buy tech (QQQ or 3x TQQQ on deep dips) or rotate to Utilities/Staples when trends weaken.
Each day the model checks: 1) If the market looks “too hot” (very strong short‑term readings in SPY or key sectors), it puts 40% into SH, which rises when the S&P 500 falls. 2) If not hot and tech looks deeply sold off, it buys TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100). 3) Otherwise it uses long‑term trends (S&P 500, Dow, Utilities): if trends look healthy, it buys QQQ; if not, it holds Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP).
An adaptive hedge overlay: 40% SH during froth and rotations to tech/defensives to dampen S&P drawdowns and add diversification. Caveat: out-of-sample risk-adjusted results are negative; best as a tactical sleeve, not core.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | 0.97 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 729.84% | 14.18% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.86 | |
| 19,314.45% | 39.12% | -0.19% | 6.62% | 1.34 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,941,445.38Regulatory Fees
$5,099.27
Total Slippage
$29,751.17
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 17, 2026
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical market timing, trend following, mean reversion, etf rotation, u.s. equities, defensive rotation, inverse etf, leveraged etf
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 8 assets in total
Ticker
Type
DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLY
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks