A daily-rebalanced, regime-driven plan that uses Nasdaq leverage, volatility hedges, and Treasuries to chase upside while defending against crashes; it relies on RSI, moving averages, and price checks to switch between levered bets (TQQQ/SQQQ) and hedges (UVXY/SVXY, TLT).

This is a rules-based, daily-rebalanced plan that moves money between Nasdaq exposure, volatility hedges, and Treasuries based on a set of signals. It uses price trends and momentum indicators, plus regime checks, to decide what to buy or hold. Core ideas: - In a strong Nasdaq uptrend, it leans into leverage (e.g., TQQQ) to amplify gains, with a small hedge via Treasuries. - If volatility spikes or the Nasdaq looks vulnerable, it shifts toward volatility hedges (UVXY or SVXY) and may reduce leverage. - In sideways or uncertain markets, it waits for clearer signals (RSI normalizing, price relative to short-term averages) before adding leverage. - Cash is often allocated evenly across active legs to avoid over-concentration. - The system rebalances daily, so positions can change even if there hasn’t been a long hold period. The core assets are: QQQ (Nasdaq proxy), TQQQ (3x Nasdaq bull), SQQQ (3x Nasdaq bear), UVXY (volatility gain vehicle), SVXY (volatility decline vehicle), and TLT (long 20+ year Treasuries). Within the rules, there are narrative groups like “Normal bull market,” “Nasdaq crash ending,” and “Nasdaq slowly falling,” each guiding which instruments to emphasize based on RSI thresholds and price checks. The design aims to capture upside in breakouts, protect against crashes, and dampen drawdowns with hedges, but it is highly leveraged and sensitive to model accuracy and transaction costs. If you encounter ETFs like KMLM, note that they are not a core part of these rules; the strategy relies on the named tickers above, which are widely traded.

Out-of-sample annualized return: 22.5% vs 18.0% for the S&P. Regime-driven, levered Nasdaq with hedges and Treasuries aims to capture upside and dampen crashes. Trade-off: higher drawdowns (33.9% vs 18.8%), but potentially stronger long-run growth.