An adaptive, weekly-rebalanced strategy that selects two of SPY, TLT, GLD, and UUP based on long-term performance, then weights the pair by inverse volatility, with a cash fallback if signals aren’t favorable.

- The strategy looks at four ETFs representing different asset classes: SPY (US stocks), TLT (long-term US bonds), GLD (gold), and UUP (US dollar index). - It rebalances every week. - It considers which two assets to hold by comparing their long-run performance over about 126 days (roughly 4–5 months to 6–7 months). It uses a chain of conditional checks to decide which pair provides the strongest signal, effectively implementing a 4 choose 2 rule (pick two from the four). - Once two assets are chosen, their weights are determined by inverse volatility: the less volatile asset receives a larger share, with the volatility estimate based on a 21-day window. - If certain signals aren’t satisfied, the framework has a cash-weighted path, acting as a safe fallback rather than forcing a two-asset position every week. - The overall aim is to capture trends across stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar while limiting exposure to highly volatile moves by tilting toward the steadier asset in the pair.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe 2.17 vs S&P 500 1.39; drawdown 5.96% vs 18.76%; Calmar 3.67. Nearly identical ~22% annual return, but diversified 2-asset pairs with inverse-volatility weighting and cash fallback—lower risk, higher resilience.