EMA 12-26 Crossover Strategy (Public) v1
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, EMA-based trend-following system with a volatility/momentum overlay that rotates into one best equity ETF (often a leveraged one) after screening a basket of sector/market ETFs; otherwise stays in cash or in safe Treasuries.
Core signal: monitor a 12-day EMA vs 26-day EMA crossover. If bullish (12 EMA above 26 EMA), consider entering. Before entry, run through a volatility/momentum overlay: check UVXY’s momentum (RSI over a short window). If that condition is met, rank a basket of equity ETFs by a short-term momentum measure and pick the one with the lowest momentum score (a bottom RSI ranking) that also passes a price-vs-EMA check (e.g., current price above a moving-average benchmark like SPY’s 50-day MA or similar checks for other assets). If the candidate passes, allocate to a targeted equity instrument (often a leveraged ETF like SPXL or TECL, or another listed option such as SPY) rather than simply buying SPY; you may see variations like QQQE, XLY, XLP, EEM, or SPXL depending on the branch. If any step fails, hold cash or switch to a safe asset (BIL, a short-term Treasuries ETF). The plan is rebalanced daily and the exposure is under the EQUITIES class. Complexity aside, the intended flow is: (1) confirm uptrend via EMA crossover; (2) apply volatility/momentum gating; (3) select a single best candidate to hold; (4) use a cash-equal approach unless an entry is triggered; (5) fallback to safety when signals weaken. Important caveats for laymen: levered ETFs (SPXL/TECL) magnify moves up and down; reliability depends on parameter choices (RSI windows, thresholds) and market regime; costs and slippage from daily rebalancing can affect net returns. For a layman, think of it as a sophisticated rule-based system that tries to ride an uptrend with a single, best-placed levered or unlevered equity bet, but only after a battery of checks designed to avoid buying when the market is risky or choppy.
Big upside potential with disciplined risk controls: out-of-sample annualized return ~55% vs S&P 500 ~30%, Calmar ~2.27. EMA trend + volatility/momentum gates pick one strong equity exposure. Higher drawdown risk (~24%) than the S&P.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 13, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, momentum, ema crossover, volatility filter, rotation, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 20 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks