EEM/EMLC - Simple low vol rule - 1.72 sharpe with etfs only
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
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About
Simple daily “risk-on/off” switch using EEM vs EMLC. Risk-on: diversified US sectors plus a large tactical natural‑gas sleeve and currency/EM hedges; some cash. Risk-off: mostly cash with tiny hedges. Designed to keep volatility low.
Each day it compares recent 40‑day performance of EM stocks (EEM) vs EM local‑currency bonds (EMLC). If stocks lead, ~80% is invested: US sectors (KIE, SMH, XLV, IHF, ITB, CWB), a big natural‑gas sleeve that shorts gas (KOLD) unless gas already fell a lot—then uses gold (GLD)+Cheniere (LNG)—plus small yen (YCS) and EM (EUM) hedges; ~20% cash. If bonds lead, ~99% stays in cash with only tiny hedges (SMH, GDX, YCS, EUO, EUM, SEF, XLV, QQQ). Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this regime-switching strategy delivers a smoother, higher risk-adjusted ride: Sharpe ~1.75 vs SPY ~1.20, max drawdown ~6% vs ~19%, Calmar ~3.0, and 17.8% annualized return. Strong downside protection with meaningful upside vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 675.59% | 15.22% | 1.36% | 13.5% | 0.94 | |
| 863.5% | 16.96% | 2.05% | 6.17% | 1.74 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$96,350.07Regulatory Fees
$272.72
Total Slippage
$1,497.75
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 4, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime-switch, trend-following, multi-asset, sector rotation, commodity & currency hedges, low-volatility, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
CWB
State Street SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
Stocks
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Stocks
EMLC
VanEck J. P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
Stocks
EUM
ProShares Trust Short MSCI Emerging Markets
Stocks
EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro
Stocks
GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
IHF
iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF
Stocks
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
Stocks
KIE
State Street SPDR S&P Insurance ETF
Stocks