Dual Momentum with Fallback Strategy
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A monthly, rules-based strategy that buys the four stocks with the strongest recent momentum when the overall market shows positive momentum; if momentum is weak, it shifts into a defensive basket of staples/utilities with heavier weight on the top two. It aims to capture upside in uptrends while limiting losses in down markets.
- Each month, assess overall market momentum using a broad market proxy (XLG//USD).
- If the market looks up (momentum positive across lookbacks), screen a wide list of stocks and pick the top 4 by 90-day gains, then invest in those 4.
- If the market looks weak (momentum not positive), switch to a defensive basket of 10 staple/steady stocks and allocate with a heavier emphasis on the top 2 within that basket.
- Rebalance on a monthly cadence.
- The intent is to ride leaders in up markets and defend with stable names in down markets; the lookbacks (e.g., 42, 84, 168 days) are chosen to avoid whipsaws and confirm trend direction before acting.
- Example universe includes familiar names (NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, META, etc.) and a set of defensives like WMT, JNJ, KO, PEP, MCD, GIS, KMB, CL, etc.
- The approach combines a momentum screen (past performance) with a regime-based fallback (defensive rotation) to balance growth potential and risk control.
Regime-based momentum: in up markets, buy top 4 movers; in down markets, tilt to defensive staples. Diversifies and adds risk control to complement the S&P 500. Note: OOS results are negative with larger drawdowns; use as satellite exposure.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Monthly
Type
Stocks
Category
Momentum investing, tactical allocation, equity selection, defensive tilt, regime-based rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 31 assets in total
Ticker
Type
ALAB
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock
Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.Com Inc
Stocks
ANET
Arista Networks
Stocks
APP
Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
Stocks
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock
Stocks
CL
Colgate-Palmolive Company
Stocks
COHR
Coherent Corp.
Stocks
DUK
Duke Energy Corporation
Stocks
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
Stocks
HEI/A
HEICO CORP CL A
Stocks