Drawdown Hedge - (Fund Surf 1x - Fund Surf 3x)
Today’s Change (Apr 19, 2026)
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About
A daily “hedged surfer.” It first looks for stress: in overheated markets it buys UVXY or mild shorts/bonds. If not, it follows trend—rotating contrarian between 3x index funds and short bonds in uptrends, and flipping to 3x inverse or T‑bills in downtrends.
Daily, rules-based drawdown hedge.
1) Extreme check: If S&P 500 or Nasdaq look very overheated short term (high RSI), buy UVXY (jumps when fear spikes). If fear is already surging, switch to a mild hedge: SH/PSQ (1x short) or SHY (short Treasuries), choosing the weakest lately.
2) Otherwise follow trend: compare SPY to its 10‑day EMA. If above, pick TQQQ/SPXL (3x long) or BSV (bonds) with the weakest recent move (a quick‑bounce bet). If below, choose among contrarian 3x longs, 3x inverse (SQQQ/SPXU), or T‑bills (BIL) by short‑term “heat” (RSI).
Out-of-sample: ~28.9% annualized vs ~23.2% for the S&P, aided by hedged, trend-contrarian rotation. UVXY/shorts and T-bills seek to curb big drops, but drawdowns can be larger (~42% vs ~19%). Higher upside, with higher risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 648.54% | 14.93% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.91 | |
| 182,487.38% | 68.07% | 8.02% | 5.66% | 1.58 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$18,258,738.24Regulatory Fees
$94,489.40
Total Slippage
$664,536.77
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 28, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, trend + mean reversion, daily rebalance, risk-managed equity
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks