Drawdown Hedge - (Fund Surf 1x - Fund Surf 3x)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily “hedged surfer.” It first looks for stress: in overheated markets it buys UVXY or mild shorts/bonds. If not, it follows trend—rotating contrarian between 3x index funds and short bonds in uptrends, and flipping to 3x inverse or T‑bills in downtrends.
Daily, rules-based drawdown hedge.
1) Extreme check: If S&P 500 or Nasdaq look very overheated short term (high RSI), buy UVXY (jumps when fear spikes). If fear is already surging, switch to a mild hedge: SH/PSQ (1x short) or SHY (short Treasuries), choosing the weakest lately.
2) Otherwise follow trend: compare SPY to its 10‑day EMA. If above, pick TQQQ/SPXL (3x long) or BSV (bonds) with the weakest recent move (a quick‑bounce bet). If below, choose among contrarian 3x longs, 3x inverse (SQQQ/SPXU), or T‑bills (BIL) by short‑term “heat” (RSI).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~28.9% vs S&P 23.2%, plus built-in hedges (UVXY, shorts, T-bills) for risk control. Higher upside with a risk-adjusted edge, though drawdowns can be larger in stressed markets.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 28, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, trend + mean reversion, daily rebalance, risk-managed equity
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks