Double Crossed, A SPY Story l 29 October 2007
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based switch that toggles between SPY (US large stocks) and BIL (T‑Bills). It buys stocks when they’re washed out or bond trends hint risk‑on, and parks in T‑Bills when stocks are overheated or jumpy, using simple “hot/cold” and volatility checks.
Goal: switch between stocks (SPY = big US companies) and cash-like safety (BIL = 1–3mo T‑Bills). It reads two gauges: RSI = a 0–100 “hot/cold” meter; Volatility = how bumpy returns are.
Rules, in order:
1) SPY very hot (RSI‑5>91.5) → BIL.
2) Very cold (RSI‑5<26.5) → SPY.
3) Very bumpy (5‑day vol>2.6) → BIL.
4) Else if bonds (BND) beat cash over ~3 mo → SPY.
5) Else if short Treasuries (SHY) beat SPY over ~1 mo → SPY.
6) Else → BIL.
Out-of-sample, it beats SPY on risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe 1.69 vs 1.33, annualized return 24.2% vs 21.3%, beta ~0.75, Calmar ~1.29—with similar drawdowns and a smart SPY/BIL risk-on/off switch.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 568.74% | 10.82% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.62 | |
| 1,705.56% | 16.94% | 0.54% | -0.35% | 1.05 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$180,556.14Regulatory Fees
$679.75
Total Slippage
$4,640.88
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jul 9, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, market timing, mean reversion, momentum, volatility filter, us equities, treasuries, bonds, risk management