Dividends 30/70, w Black Swan
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Income-focused, signal-driven strategy using dividend ETFs plus momentum-based hedges on SPY/QQQ/SMH, with Black Swan ballast via BIL/CII and exposure to UVXY, SPXL, TQQQ, SOXL. Aimed at steady income with risk controls, but complex and costs/roller-coaster potential exist.
The strategy runs three parallel modules (SPY, QQQ, SMH). Each module watches a 10-day momentum indicator (a measure of recent price strength) and decides among: (1) long exposure to the base leveraged ETF (SPXL, TQQQ, SOXL) for upside, (2) a volatility hedge (UVXY) when momentum is extremely strong/negative, or (3) a safety hedge (BIL) when momentum is negative or risk signals spike. In parallel, a dividend-income layer buys SCHD, DGRO, and DBMF to create a steady cash-generating base. A “Black Swan catcher” adds ballast with BIL and CII to moderate losses during rare shocks. Periodically, cash is directed into the dividend layer and the pop-bot modules retain exposure with the intent of balancing income with capital preservation. The intended result is regular dividend income with a risk-managed equity tilt that can shift toward volatility hedges or safer assets as signals dictate.
The approach is not a buy-and-hold; it adapts to market conditions using a rule-based framework and levered ETF exposure, so it can produce gains in uptrends but may underperform in persistent volatility regimes if signals misfire or costs erode returns.
Out-of-sample shows ~33.5% annual return vs S&P’s ~21.3%, with Calmar ~1.20 signaling strong risk-adjusted gains. It adds dividend income, adaptive hedges, and ballast to weather shocks. Higher upside potential with managed risk, unlike buy-and-hold.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.68 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 157.6% | 14.84% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.8 | |
| 2,024.1% | 56.35% | -1.67% | 1.61% | 1.66 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$212,409.78Regulatory Fees
$350.39
Total Slippage
$2,001.90
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 20, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Dividend income, momentum trading, leveraged etfs, hedging, multi-asset, systematic
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CII
BlackRock Enhanced Large Cap Core Fund, Inc.
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
DGRO
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF
Stocks
SCHD
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks