Diversification For The Long Term
Today’s Change (Apr 3, 2026)
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About
Daily trend-following with simple rules. In uptrends it holds world stocks unless things look overheated, then it flips to a volatility hedge (UVXY). In downtrends it mostly stays in world stocks, moving to long Treasuries (TLT) only if weakness persists. Uses SPY as barometer.
Each day it checks if the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day average (long‑term uptrend). If yes and a short‑term “too hot” gauge (RSI, 0–100) on leveraged stock funds (TQQQ or SPXL) is very high, it buys UVXY (a market‑fear fund). Otherwise it holds VT (total world stocks). If SPY is below its 200‑day average, it usually holds VT; but if TQQQ is below its 20‑day average without being deeply oversold, it holds TLT (long‑term U.S. Treasuries).
Out-of-sample, this trend-following strategy beats the S&P 500: ~31.5% annualized return vs 19.4%, max drawdown ~9.5% vs 16.6%, Sharpe ~1.75 vs ~1.0. Higher return with notably better risk-adjusted downside protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 654.26% | 14.99% | -4.19% | -3.74% | 0.92 | |
| 27,885.11% | 47.63% | -3.27% | 0.03% | 1.51 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,798,510.92Regulatory Fees
$4,122.80
Total Slippage
$27,978.50
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 24, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical asset allocation, volatility hedge, global equities, long-duration treasuries, daily rebalanced
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total