Dip Buying Tech Below 10d RSI of 30 using XLP as the "cash" position and XLK as the "tech" etf to backtest through the dot com crash
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Simple game plan: in healthy markets hold SPY. When the market weakens, either buy tech (XLK) only after sharp drops in QQQ (RSI<30) or sit defensively in consumer staples (XLP). Backtested daily since 1999, spanning the dot‑com crash.
Each day: 1) Check if SPY (fund of top 500 US stocks) is above its 200‑day average price (a long‑term trend line). If yes, own SPY. 2) If not, look at QQQ’s 10‑day RSI (a 0–100 “how hard it fell” gauge). If RSI < 30 (tech just dropped fast), buy XLK (tech stocks). Otherwise, hold XLP (defensive consumer‑staples stocks).
Out-of-sample edge: 26.5% annualized return vs SPY 22.5%, Sharpe 1.60 vs 1.34, max drawdown ~11% vs ~18.8%, Calmar ~2.41. Higher risk-adjusted growth with downside protection via systematic trend/dip signals vs the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 | 0.8 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798.23% | 8.46% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.52 | |
| 4,259.68% | 14.99% | 6.33% | 5.27% | 0.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$435,968.27Regulatory Fees
$762.86
Total Slippage
$4,766.98
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 7, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend filter, sector rotation, dip buying, rsi-based signal, defensive overlay