A daily tactical strategy that toggles between Bitcoin exposure (GBTC), an inverse Bitcoin bet (BITI), and a safety hedge (BIL) using short/long momentum and volatility signals, prioritizing SVIX/VIXY patterns and GBTC/BITI momentum, with BITI/GBTC decisions driven by 20d vs 200d moving-average momentum and short-term RSI comparisons. The result is a single-asset tilt each day, aiming to ride Bitcoin trends while hedging risk with volatility and short Treasuries.

The strategy runs every day and picks one main exposure based on a two-layer decision tree: - Layer 1 (volatility/strength signal): Check if Bitcoin-related volatility signals are favoring a move (using RSI on SVIX and VIXY). If SVIX shows short-term strength (its 3-day RSI is higher than its 21-day RSI), the strategy proceeds to a Bitcoin-exposure test. If this volatility signal isn’t favorable, the strategy leans toward a volatility-hedge or safe‑haven stance (via BIL). - Layer 2 (Bitcoin exposure momentum): If the volatility signal points toward taking Bitcoin exposure, evaluate momentum for GBTC (Bitcoin trust). If GBTC’s short-term momentum (20-day moving-average of returns) is above its long-term momentum (200-day moving-average of returns), the strategy goes long GBTC. If GBTC momentum isn’t positive, the strategy considers BITI (inverse Bitcoin). It checks BITI’s short-term momentum relative to its long-term momentum (BITI 20-day MA return vs BITI 200-day MA return). If BITI shows favorable short-term momentum, the strategy tilts to BITI; otherwise it shifts to the risk-off hedge (BIL). - Fallback: If the initial volatility/Short-term momentum signals are negative or inconclusive, the strategy places the entire exposure into BIL (short-term Treasuries) as a safe-haven hedge. Weights: The construction shows a cash-equal weighting mechanism but effectively results in a single active position at rebalance (100% exposure to the chosen asset, net of any cash reserve). In plain terms: you’re either betting on Bitcoin via GBTC, betting against Bitcoin via BITI, or shifting to a safe-haven via BIL, with daily updates. What you’re betting on: a blend of momentum (are prices trending up or down?) and volatility regime (are volatility signals signaling higher risk?), tuned specifically to Bitcoin-related assets and a short-bond hedge. The strategy does not aim to own multiple assets at once; it selects one primary exposure each day based on the rules above.

Active, signal-driven Bitcoin tilt with hedges; OOS drawdown ~10.6%, annualized return ~4.66%, Calmar ~0.439—offering better downside control and risk-adjusted performance vs the S&P 500.