A rule-based, regime-driven framework that identifies secular bull vs. bear markets (via SPY’s 50/200-day signals and momentum checks) and shifts between equities and Treasuries (with occasional hedges) to capture upside in bulls and protect in bears.

- Start by judging the big market trend with SPY using two moving averages (50-day and 200-day). If the 50-day is above the 200-day, think bull market; if below, think bear market. - In a bull market, tilt toward stocks but temper with risk controls: use a primary stock mix (e.g., SPY with bonds as ballast) and watch for overbought signals (RSI-based) that suggest trimming equity risk or shifting some money to safer bonds. - When signals indicate a shift toward overbought conditions or weakening leadership (via RSI and relative-strength checks), reduce exposure to high-risk assets and consider holding more cash or Treasuries. - In a bear market, tilt toward safety and defensiveness: increase cash and hold shorter/longer-term Treasuries (SHY, IEI, IEF, TLT). Consider hedging Nasdaq exposure with an inverse ETF (PSQ) if conditions worsen, and rotate into defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP). - The framework emphasizes rule-based, non-periodic changes rather than fixed calendar rebalancing. It uses a curated set of ETFs to access broad equities, tech/defensive sectors, and a spectrum of Treasuries to implement the regime-specific allocations. - Overall objective: participate in secular bull runs with favorable equity exposure, while reducing risk and providing hedges during secular declines, based on transparent, rules-driven signals rather than discretionary judgments.

Out-of-sample, this regime-driven strategy beats SPY on risk-adjusted metrics: 23.6% vs 22.2% annualized return, 12.1% vs 18.8% max drawdown, Calmar ~1.95, Sharpe ~1.35, beta ~0.93. It participates in bulls, defends in bears with lower risk.