Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rule-based playbook: label the market long-term up or down, then tilt between SPY, Treasuries, staples, and at times short QQQ. Ride strength, ease off when hot, defend in downtrends, and selectively buy tech dips when they’re washed out.
1) Judge the market’s long-term climate using smoothed prices (200‑ vs 1000‑day averages).
2) Inside that, use 50/200‑day crosses (golden=up, death=down) and price vs the 200‑day to go on offense (SPY) or defense.
RSI is a 0–100 heat gauge: low=cold, high=hot.
Defense: SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT (US Treasuries short→long), XLP (staples), PSQ (short QQQ). Offense/dip‑buys: SPY; XLK/SOXX when QQQ is washed‑out.
Out-of-sample edge: 23.61% annualized return vs 22.17% for SPY, with 12.11% max drawdown vs 18.76%, Calmar 1.95, and positive alpha. Higher upside, tighter downside protection, and lower beta than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.56 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 571.19% | 10.45% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.6 | |
| 3,087.73% | 19.82% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 1.26 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$318,773.09Regulatory Fees
$765.96
Total Slippage
$5,111.79
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, tactical asset allocation, regime switching, momentum/mean reversion, etfs, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks