Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A regime-based plan: ride long uptrends with SPY, add bonds when overheated; buy tech on rare washouts; in downtrends lean on Treasuries/defensives and sometimes short QQQ. Backtest 2008–2023: 19.1%/yr, 16.5% max drop (not guaranteed).
Tools: moving averages (50/200/1000-day price averages to spot trends) and RSI (0–100 gauge of how stretched a move is: <30 washed-out, >60 hot).
Tickers: SPY=S&P 500, QQQ=Nasdaq-100, XLK=tech, SOXX=semis, XLP=consumer staples, SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT=1–3/3–7/7–10/20+yr US Treas, PSQ=inverse QQQ.
Logic: If 200d>1000d it's an uptrend: hold SPY; if SPY is hot add TLT; if SPY weakens hold SHY unless tech is washed-out (then XLK/SOXX). Else (downtrend): hold SPY with 3–10yr Treas; if falls worsen rotate to XLP, TLT, or PSQ.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets higher returns (23.6% vs 22.2%), better risk-adjusted perf (Sharpe ~1.35), and smaller drawdowns (12.1% vs 18.8%), with lower beta (~0.93). A smoother, more resilient path than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.56 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 585.54% | 10.6% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.61 | |
| 3,155.87% | 19.99% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$325,587.20Regulatory Fees
$765.96
Total Slippage
$5,111.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, tactical allocation, rsi/momentum, us equities, treasuries, defensive rotation, inverse etf
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks