Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Nov 5, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A market-climate strategy that shifts between the S&P 500, tech, defensive stocks, bonds, and an inverse Nasdaq fund based on whether U.S. stocks look strong, weak, overheated, or oversold.
How it worksThis strategy first asks: is the U.S. stock market in a strong long-term climate or a weak one? It judges that by comparing long-term trend lines on SPY, the fund that tracks the S&P 500.
If the long-term climate is strong, it usually owns SPY. If stocks look a bit overheated, it mixes in long-term Treasury bonds (TLT). If the market weakens, it may either hide in safer short-term bonds (SHY) or try to buy beaten-down tech through XLK or SOXX.
If the long-term climate is weak, it gets much more defensive. It may hold medium- or long-term Treasury bonds (IEF, IEI, TLT), defensive consumer-staples stocks (XLP), and sometimes PSQ, which goes up when the Nasdaq-100 falls. In short: strong market = mostly stocks; weak market = more defense, bonds, and occasional downside protection.
Value propRegime-aware, rules-based strategy that tames downside while capturing upside. Out-of-sample: 20.82% annualized return vs SPY 20.49%, drawdown 12.1% vs 18.8%, Calmar ~1.72 and Sharpe ~1.26—better risk-adjusted upside than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.57 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 673.23% | 10.89% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.63 | |
| 3,494.28% | 19.85% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$359,428.45Regulatory Fees
$645.77
Total Slippage
$5,554.90
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, regime switching, tactical asset allocation, us equities, treasuries, tech sector, defensive, inverse etf
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks