Dereck's Secular Market Framework
Today’s Change (Mar 6, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A regime-based plan: ride long uptrends with SPY, add bonds when overheated; buy tech on rare washouts; in downtrends lean on Treasuries/defensives and sometimes short QQQ. Backtest 2008–2023: 19.1%/yr, 16.5% max drop (not guaranteed).
Tools: moving averages (50/200/1000-day price averages to spot trends) and RSI (0–100 gauge of how stretched a move is: <30 washed-out, >60 hot).
Tickers: SPY=S&P 500, QQQ=Nasdaq-100, XLK=tech, SOXX=semis, XLP=consumer staples, SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT=1–3/3–7/7–10/20+yr US Treas, PSQ=inverse QQQ.
Logic: If 200d>1000d it's an uptrend: hold SPY; if SPY is hot add TLT; if SPY weakens hold SHY unless tech is washed-out (then XLK/SOXX). Else (downtrend): hold SPY with 3–10yr Treas; if falls worsen rotate to XLP, TLT, or PSQ.
Out-of-sample edge: about 23.6% annualized return vs SPY 22.2%, max drawdown 12.1% vs 18.8%, Calmar ~1.95. Strong risk-adjusted upside with trend/bond hedges—better downside resilience than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.56 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 581.72% | 10.56% | 0.54% | -0.34% | 0.61 | |
| 3,137.72% | 19.95% | 0.54% | -0.35% | 1.27 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$323,771.86Regulatory Fees
$765.96
Total Slippage
$5,111.78
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 3%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching, trend following, tactical allocation, rsi/momentum, us equities, treasuries, defensive rotation, inverse etf
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 10 assets in total
Ticker
Type
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks